Oh gosh….I couldn’t even begin to tell you how big of a day this used to be for me back in pre-teen and teenage years. I LOVED the movie world and despite the political and warped methods that many (aka ALL) award shows tend to follow, I lived for award season and would read everything article and watch any television special that focused on the prognosticating of who would win an award.
I stopped being as avid a filmgoer during my college years (the last film year I was heavily involved in as a passionate follower was 2008), but I’ve kept up with some of the seasons since, particularly the past couple of years. This year, I’ve been following it more than I had been in the past but I also haven’t had much passion for it. The truth is that a lot of the movies that year weren’t that strong for me, which doesn’t exactly make me super eager.
Nevertheless, I’m going to give my predictions for the Oscars as they air this evening!
Best Picture: ROMA
Spoiler: GREEN BOOK
Who should win? THE FAVOURITE
-I think ROMA is definitely the odds on favorite here as it has the critical pedigree, not to mention winning such key awards as the DGA for its director Alfonso Cuarón. It winning would be historical not only for the fact that it’s a NETFLIX film but more importantly, it would be the FIRST Foreign Language film to win this award in the Academy’s 91 year history, which is kind of a shame…but it is a glass ceiling that needs broken. However, can the NETFLIX bias hurt it? I think it’s possible. And the preferential ballot system used to vote for this award could hurt it if many people vote it lower to negatively affect its chances. If it were to lose, who would then win? I would have to say GREEN BOOK, despite its Director snub. It has a chance to win Original Screenplay and is a strong contender to win Sup. Actor, and it managed to win the PGA for Best Picture which also votes on a Preferential Ballot. The film also has its controversies over being considered to white-washed and paint by numbers, but that could be why some sadly vote for it. I personally would love to see THE FAVOURITE win. It has a shot at winning a couple of tech prizes along with Original Screenplay and even pulling off acting wins for Olivia Colman and Rachel Weisz. It’s also tied with ROMA with the most nominations. The downside is that it hasn’t really won anywhere except for primarily at BAFTA and it lost Best Picture there.
BEST DIRECTOR, Alfonso Cuarón, ROMA
Spoiler: Spike Lee, BLACKKKLANSMEN
Who should win? Cuarón
-I think even if ROMA loses Best Picture, that Cuarón will still take this. It’s his passion project and he did a masterful job created this world from his past, and he’s basically swept the directing awards from the precursors. The only person I could see upsetting him is Spike Lee if they REALLY feel bad about this being his first directing nomination…but I’d be surprised if he pulled it off in this category.
BEST ACTOR: Rami Malek, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
Spoiler: Christian Bale, VICE
Who should win? Bradley Cooper, A STAR IS BORN
-It seems to be the general consensus that Cooper screwed up by mainly campaigning as a director rather than for his acting in the film…but once again, it shows how stupid the political aspects are during the process of award season. I think he did very well in the movie, not to mention doing his own singing and guitar playing whereas front runner Malek didn’t really do anything that came close. I think this is a good place where you could honor Cooper with a deserved Oscar not just for a worthy performance but also for his work on the whole film. As it stands, Malek is probably going to win and most of the internet isn’t too thrilled about that…but many aren’t as passionate about Bale either. It almost seems like Cooper is the fan favorite.
Best Actress: Glenn Close, THE WIFE
Spoiler: Olivia Colman, THE FAVOURITE
Who should win? Colman
-There are rumblings that Colman’s support is growing and a lot of the anonymous ballots are showing that same support, but that could just be a fluke (it has been in the past). As it stands, I’m going to be happy either way because it will be nice to see Glenn Close FINALLY win an Oscar when she should already have one or two on her mantle…and the good news is that her performance is also very good and worthy in its own right (much like when Geraldine Page finally won for THE TRIP TO BOUNTIFUL). However, in my own Oscar world, Close would have an Oscar for FATAL ATTRACTION and possibly one more for either GARP or ALBERT NOBBS, so I’d give my vote to Olivia Colman, who walked the line between camp and drama with such perfection and ease that I was truly astounded.
Best Supporting Actor: Richard E. Grant, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
Spoiler (if not, the winner): Mahersala Ali, GREEN BOOK
Who should win? Grant
-This is my “no guts, no glory” pick and I know I’m not alone. The truth is Mahersala Ali is the odds on favorite and there is no denying his appeal and talent, but he already won an Oscar two years ago for a performance that honestly wasn’t particularly stellar. Here, he is basically commuting category fraud and while he has more to work with than his winning performance in MOONLIGHT, I still just feel like the timing is oddly working in his favor even though many often don’t win second Oscars this fast. The reason I’m going for Grant is this sneaking hopeful feeling that maybe some people will see that his performance is truly magnificent (and actually SUPPORTING) and want to acknowledge a great character actor with an award since Ali already has one and honestly may have more chances to get a second. And even though I acknowledged the misleading nature of the anonymous voter polls, Grant has basically showed up as the winner in ALL of them except for maybe two that I’ve read out of 90. It’s a risky choice but I want to go for it. As for the others, Driver and especially Rockwell should be happy to be nominated. Sam Elliot seemed poised to be a possible James Coburn/Jack Palance/Don Ameche veteran selection early on but I don’t think it’ll happen. While he wouldn’t be my pick, he did do a nice job with his brief moments in A STAR IS BORN.
Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
Spoiler: Rachel Weisz, THE FAVOURITE or Marina del Tavira, ROMA
Who should win? Weisz
-This is probably the most suspenseful and exciting category of the night. You have a person like King who was considered an early front runner based on her critic award sweep (although those matter less in today’s Oscar work) and her wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards…but then she got snubbed at SAG and BAFTA which indicated a potential lack of industry support. SAG was won by perennial Oscar snubbee Emily Blunt while BAFTA went to Weisz, which many suspected. Amy Adams wasn’t really able to gain much traction despite being overdue as well, but the general consensus seems to be this isn’t her best work and the film is polarizing so she may have to wait and keep being a bridesmaid. Emma Stone is probably giving her best performance so far in her career (found her somewhat overrated in her Oscar winning LA LA LAND performance), but she hasn’t gained traction her plus I feel that is she somewhat overshadowed in presence by her two costars. The big surprise nomination was Marina del Tavira who did a lovely job in ROMA…and truth be told, the nomination and the fact this category is so warped leads me to believe she has a shot of pulling off a MAJOR upset. She could win if they really decide to go cuckoo for ROMA and want to give it an acting win. It wouldn’t be a bad choice as it does feel like a very real and lived in performance which a couple of great emotional and flashy moments. As it stands, I’m going to tentatively go for King just because I do think she is well liked in the industry and perhaps Oscar voters won’t want to give Weisz a second Oscar (although they may give Ali one).
Best Original Screenplay: THE FAVOURITE
Spoiler: GREEN BOOK
Who should win? THE FAVOURITE
-Even the Screenplay categories have been odd this season. The WGA gave this category to the snubbed EIGHTH GRADE, while the awards seemed to have been split between THE FAVOURITE, GREEN BOOK, and FIRST REFORMED. You also could even consider the fifth nominee ROMA in that regard if they really do love the movie. As it stands, and I’m certainly not alone in predicting it, I want to say this is going to go to THE FAVOURITE and I think it certainly deserves it.
Best Adapted Screenplay: BLACKKKLANSMAN
Spoiler: IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK or CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
Who should win? I honestly don’t have a preference here-
-While Barry Jenkins seemed to be the early frontrunner for this award for BEALE STREET, it seemed as though the tides were changing when the support for the film seemed to wane plus some seemed to feel that the script wasn’t as strong as his winning work two years ago from MOONLIGHT. This race is as also seen as a way to finally honor Spike Lee with an Oscar while the WGA ended voting for the very writerly driven script of FORGIVE ME. I am leaning toward the combo of overdue and good script and the fact that it’s a BP nominee and predicting BLACKKKLANSMAN. It’s been 20 years since a film won this award without being nominated for Best Picture so I’ll stick with the statistic on a somewhat confident level.
So we shall see what happens tonight!